如果在2019年8月份买入负利率的30年期德国国债，现在已经亏多少了？
译者 王为
文中黑字部分为原文，蓝字部分为译文，红字部分为译者注释或补充说明
How Much Money Have Folks Already Lost Who Bought that Negative-Yielding 30-Year German Government Bond last August?
By Wolf Richter
在负利率政策的大本营里正在发生一些很搞笑的事情：长期国债的收益率水平正在上升，原先的负利率正在转成正利率，跟着央行指挥棒转的无脑投资者正在遭受惩罚
So how much can you lose in a little over four months buying one of the most conservative investments, the German government 30-year bond, during peak-hype of the negative-interest-rate era?
在负利率登峰造极的时刻买入30年期德国国债这种最保守的资产之一的投资者在四个月多一点的时间里会遭受多少损失？
At peak-hype of the negative-interest-rate era, in mid-August 2019, the German government was able to squeak by selling €869 million of 30-year bonds (ISIN DE0001102481) that it had the temerity offer with a 0% coupon, meaning no interest payments ever, and that it was able to sell above face value, giving the bond a negative yield of -0.11% at issuance.
2019年8月中旬是负利率登峰造极的时点，当时德国政府非常侥幸地成功发行了总量为8.69亿欧元的30年期德国国债, ISIN代码为DE0001102481（ISIN code即国际证券识别代码，由12位数字和字母组成，代码的前两位代表发行人所在国家，用于识别全球范围内的各类股票、债券、期货合约、期权合约等资产），票息为0%，在整个30年的存续期间里德国政府不会支付一分钱的利息，而且该券的发行价比面值还高，也就是说该券的到期收益率为-0.11%。
So, as yields fall – become more negative – bond prices rise. That’s the bet for buyers of these things. And this is what happened for a few days in August. The bond started trading up, going over 107 cents on the euro at the peak, giving it a negative yield of around -0.20%.
因此，如果到期收益率下行，也就是进入更深的负利率区间，债券的价格将上涨，买入负利率债券的投资者赌的就是这个。这种情况仅发生在2019年8月份的寥寥数日内，这只30年期德国国债的价格最高时涨到1.07欧元，负收益率的水平到了-0.20%左右。
But as yields rise – become less negative or become more positive – prices fall. And this is what happened next. At the end of August, this bond traded at 105.62 cents on the euro, giving it a negative yield of -0.18%. So far so good.
但是当到期收益率出现上涨，即负收益率的程度减缓或变成正收益率，债券的价格就下跌了。之后发生的就是这种情况，2019年8月末该券的价格为1.0562欧元，到期收益率的水平为-0.18%，看上去问题好像还不大。
Then a funny thing happened in NIRP land, as well as the US: Despite ECB and Fed rate cuts, long-term yields began to zigzag higher, and bond prices fell.
然后与美国遇到的情况一样，在负利率政策的大本营里也发生了搞笑的一幕：尽管欧洲央行和美联储在降息，但这两边的长期限国债的收益率水平却开始晃晃悠悠地往上走，国债价格跌了。
Now let’s say this upfront with bonds: If this 30-year German government bond, issued in August 2019, goes south in your portfolio, you can always hold it to maturity, because at maturity – in August 2050 – the German government will pay you face value for it.
可以这么讲：如果在投资组合中这只2019年8月份发行的30年期德国国债的市值出现贬值，投资者可以将其继续持有到期，因为在到期日2050年8月德国政府会按照票面金额向持有者还本。
So, if you bought this bond in August last year, say, at 106 cents on the euro, and you hold it to maturity, you will receive zero interest income over those 30 years; and then in August 2050, the German government will redeem it by paying you face value, namely 100 cents on the euro. You will book a 6% capital loss and zero interest income for 30 years.
因此，如果在2019年8月按照1.06欧元的价格买了这只国债并持有到期，在30年的时间将得不到一分钱的利息收入，德国政府将在2050年8月按照面值向持有者支付1欧元，投资者的损失为本金的6%以及30年的利息收入为0。
In addition, you will experience the loss of purchasing power of the money that was tied up in the bond for 30 years. When the German government credits you this money in the amount of face value of the bond, you will discover that over the span of 30 years, this money has lost much of its purchasing power due to inflation. If inflation over those 30 years averages around the ECB’s target of just under 2%, the loss of purchasing power would amount to about 50%.
此外，投资者还将承担本金被锁定30年而在货币购买力方面的损失。在德国政府按照面值向持有者还本的时候，投资者会发现在30年的时间里，货币的购买力因通胀侵蚀而损失惨重。如果未来30年欧元区的通胀增速围绕着欧洲央行2%的政策目标值进行波动，在此期间欧元的购买力将遭受约50%的损失。
But today, we won’t think about inflation. We’ll just focus on the capital loss so far.
但是今天要谈的不是通胀问题，关注点是迄今为止投资这只30年期德国国债所遭受的本金损失。
Say, you bought the bond at the end of August at 106 cents on the euro. So today, a little over four months later, it closed at 90.592, for a loss of 14.5%.
假设是在2019年8月末按照1.06欧元的价格买入这只债券，那么在过去了四个月多一点的今天，该券的价格收在0.90592欧元，损失为14.5%。
This bond’s yield is now positive +0.32%. In other words, on this bond, the yield rose a still minuscule 50 basis points, and this translates into a 14.5% capital loss. This is when duration meets negative yields that are ticking up in tiny baby steps into the positive (chart via Börse Berlin):
该券的到期收益率为+0.32%，换言之，该券到期收益率的升幅仍为微不足道的50个基点，本金的损失就已达到14.5%，这就是当长久期的债券在负的收益率小步快走转成正收益率后出现的情况，下图来自柏林交易所。
With positive-yielding bonds, when they’re headed south, holding them to maturity means that you get at least some interest income to help you defray the scourge of inflation. With negative-yielding bonds, it’s a guaranteed loss unless yields go even more negative, say, over the long term, to a negative -100%. And that’s unlikely to happen. That’s why I call these long-duration negative yielding bonds the ultimate “punishment bonds.” They punish you for having surrendered your brain to the central bank.
如果是正收益率的债券遭遇价格贬值，持有到期意味着投资者至少可以拿到一些利息收益以弥补通胀给货币购买力带来的损失。如果是负收益率的债券，本金损失是没跑的，除非收益率的水平进入更深的负利率区间，比如长期来看能到-100%，这种情况不太可能发生。这就是我为啥会称这些负收益率的长久期债券为“谁买谁倒霉债券”的原因了，这些债券的投资者因不长脑子地相信央行而遭到报应。
Every German government bond with a remaining maturity of over 13 years has left NIRP land. There are still plenty German bonds around with negative yields, but medium and longer-term yields are rising as well, with the 10-year yield now at negative -0.216%, up 50 basis points from negative -0.712% on August 28.
任何一只未偿期限在13年以上的德国国债的到期收益率都已经脱离了负收益率区间，还有相当多的德国国债的收益率低于零，但是中长期德国国债的收益率也在上行。当前10年期德国国债的收益率为-0.216%，比2019年8月28日的-0.712%高了50个基点。
And this is happening around the NIRP world:
以下是负利率政策的大本营正在发生的情况：
The French 10-year yield has turned positive, now at +0.063%, up from negative -0.438% at the end of August.
10年期法国国债的收益率已经转正，目前为+0.063%，而2019年8月末为-0.438%；
The Italian 10-year yield never made it into the negative. It bottomed out at +0.82% at the end of August and has now risen 56 basis points to 1.38%.
意大利10年期国债的收益率从未跌破零，并在2019年8月末触底+0.82%的水平，目前反弹了56个基点至1.38%；
The Spanish 10-year yield almost made it into the negative, to 0.02% at the end of August, and has since risen to 0.45%. Spanish debt with a remaining maturity of slightly longer than 5 years has left NIRP land.
西班牙10年期国债的收益率差一点进入负值区间，2019年8月末的水平为+0.02%，从那时起开始反弹，目前为+0.45%； 剩余期限略高于5年的西班牙国债的收益率均已脱离负收益率区间；
Japan’s 10-year yield has turned positive at 0.007%, up from a negative -0.284% on August 29.
10年期日本国债的收益率已经转正为+0.007%，而2019年8月末为-0.284%。
But it was fun while it lasted – the idea that you could eventually earn a regular income stream by taking out the biggest possible 30-year mortgage with a negative interest rate, or that you could pile up student loans to the max whose negative interest rates would pay for your early retirement! Just imagine the possibilities! So we watch with sadness in our hearts as this era of impossible possibilities is fading.
但搞笑的是，有人指望将30年期负利率的按揭质押贷款借到最大额度后定期获得现金收入或者把学生贷款的额度借到顶，然后负的贷款利率产生的现金流会让借款人早点过上退休的日子！好好想想这种美梦发生的可能性吧！我们满怀着悲伤，眼睁睁地看着这个让人产生“白日梦终会成真”错觉的时代正在远去。